The 2012 Presidential race

[sidney]

I just read in a blog comment the most wonderful hypothetical scenario :)

In 2012, President Obama runs for re-election and Biden retires (or prefers a Cabinet position).

The GOP is in meltdown trying to find a candidate who is not old, associated with George W. Bush, or is a completely inexperienced freshman senator from the 2010 election. They settle on Sarah Palin.

Obama chooses a female vice presidential running mate who is the perfect counter to Palin's candidacy ... Tina Fey!

[Judy G. Russell]

I just read in a blog comment the most wonderful hypothetical scenario :) In 2012, President Obama runs for re-election and Biden retires (or prefers a Cabinet position). The GOP is in meltdown trying to find a candidate who is not old, associated with George W. Bush, or is a completely inexperienced freshman senator from the 2010 election. They settle on Sarah Palin. Obama chooses a female vice presidential running mate who is the perfect counter to Palin's candidacy ... Tina Fey!ROFL!!!! I love it!!

[ndebord]

ROFL!!!! I love it!!

Judy,

Back to the race and the last debate. Did the Joe the Plumber line revive McCain's campaign?

[sidney]

Did the Joe the Plumber line revive McCain's campaign?

I've been reading about the reaction meter on CNN and a whole slew of insta-polls after the debate. They said the meters showed people hating McCain's Joe the Plumber references, and the post-debate insta-polls of independents and undecideds are consistently close to 2:1 for Obama.

[ndebord]

I've been reading about the reaction meter on CNN and a whole slew of insta-polls after the debate. They said the meters showed people hating McCain's Joe the Plumber references, and the post-debate insta-polls of independents and undecideds are consistently close to 2:1 for Obama.

Sidney,

Good to know. I was busy and didn't have the time to check the after debate reports.

[Judy G. Russell]

Back to the race and the last debate. Did the Joe the Plumber line revive McCain's campaign?I sure don't think so. The first reference or two was effective, but by the 15th or so, it was old, old old. And McCain's "huh???" reaction when he pressed Obama for how much of a fine Joe would pay if he didn't buy health care and Obama said "zero" (small businesses are exempt from that provision in Obama's health care plan) was very telling.

[Judy G. Russell]

I've been reading about the reaction meter on CNN and a whole slew of insta-polls after the debate. They said the meters showed people hating McCain's Joe the Plumber references, and the post-debate insta-polls of independents and undecideds are consistently close to 2:1 for Obama.More telling than anything: the Fox News "independent" voters broke more than 50% for Obama, and Fox's commentators thought Obama won the debate decisively.

[Bill Hirst]

I've been reading about the reaction meter on CNN and a whole slew of insta-polls after the debate. They said the meters showed people hating McCain's Joe the Plumber references, and the post-debate insta-polls of independents and undecideds are consistently close to 2:1 for Obama.
You'd think the Republicans would steer clear of plumbers, but perhaps they don't remember Nixon anymore. I ran across this quote after Googling Nixon plumbers: "Loyalty to the president was primary. Loyalty to spiritual and moral principles, to the U.S. Constitution, and to the law, became secondary. ... I was primed to do whatever was necessary to help the president solve what was perceived as a national security crisis." That was from Egil "Bud" Krogh, one of the Watergate burglars. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/139617_plumber15.html
I think the Republican party has shown signs of returning to that philosophy of expediency over legality since 9/11. I also feel voters were already outraged over WMDs, waterboarding and warrentless wiretaps.This month's financial crisis and the sudden blow to people's pocketbooks is merely the final straw that is breaking the public's confidence in the incumbent party.

-Bill

[ktinkel]

The Joe the Plumber (whose last name McCain got wrong; it was corrected by Obama) story was extra silly. But it is getting even sillier!

NYC’s ABC news tonight is going to feature an interview with a local Joe-the-plumber.

There must be thousands of plumbers named Joe in the U.S. Can you imagine? Every local newscast, yearning to fill space with non-news, will be interviewing some hapless plumber by the name of Joe on the subject of health plans and the economy!

[Judy G. Russell]

The Joe the Plumber (whose last name McCain got wrong; it was corrected by Obama) story was extra silly. But it is getting even sillier!And sillier yet: Joe the plumber doesn't have the license he's required by law to have. And he isn't buying a plumbing business (he and his boss have talked about maybe someday he might take over his boss's business)...

[sidney]

The Joe the Plumber (whose last name McCain got wrong; it was corrected by Obama) story was extra silly. But it is getting even sillier!

And yet sillier -- "Wurzelbacher said he started his day with an early morning workout and came back to his suburban Toledo home to do live interviews with TV networks.

Reporters camped out by his house overnight and by midmorning there were 21 people on his driveway surrounding him, holding cameras and notebooks."

The poor guy is not ready for the media attention. It is now known that he is a registered Republican who voted in the primary, so now the blogs are accusing him of lying about being undecided. (Ignoring that there are plenty of crossovers and people considering crossing over). He is not a licensed plumber and doesn't have a specific plan as to how he will buy the residential plumbing company. The company is just a two-person outfit owned by a plumber he has been working with. They have discussed his eventually taking over the business, but not how. He owes $1,182.98 in back taxes, with a lien filed against him for it in Lucas County. He may have got himself in trouble because he believes that he can do plumbing work under the owner's license, but Ohio building regulations might require him to maintain his own license. As far as I can tell from his remarks he is not at all business savvy and was concerned about having to pay more taxes if he ever did acquire the business because it grosses over $250,000, not understanding that the taxes are based on net income. It seems that everything Obama said about a 3% higher marginal tax rate on just the income over $250,000 and the elimination of capital gains tax for small businesses went over his head.

Now bloggers are accusing him of being a fraud and a GOP operative, none of which makes sense for his chance encounter with Obama in his neighborhood, an encounter that could not have been planned or anticipated.

[Judy G. Russell]

Now bloggers are accusing him of being a fraud and a GOP operative, none of which makes sense for his chance encounter with Obama in his neighborhood, an encounter that could not have been planned or anticipated.(a) Paranoia is unbecoming. Understandable perhaps after 2000 and 2004, but definitely unbecoming. (b) I feel so sorry for this poor guy. Unless McCain had permission to inject him into the center of this firestorm, it was just flat out plain wrong to do so.

[sidney]

(a) Paranoia is unbecoming

Speaking of paranoia, the first thing to be found out about this guy, by bloggers before the local newspaper did a much more thorough vetting (http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081016/NEWS09/810160418), was an old NYT article CREDIT MARKETS; Keating Aide in Guilty Plea (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE3DC143EF933A25751C1A9679582 60) in which it says Mr. Dickson was convicted last week in a California court on 17 of 18 counts of securities fraud and faces up to 10 years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

Mr. Dickson was a close aide to Mr. Keating and worked with Mr. Keating's son-in-law, Robert Wurzelbacher, a senior vice president of American Continental.

There was no evidence unearthed by bloggers of a relationship between Joe Wurzelbacher (who turns out to be Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher from Hudson, Ohio) and Robert Wurzelbacher, but given that there is/was a "Robert M. Wurzelbacher" in Milford, Ohio who donated over $20,000 to Republicans (http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/bystate_detail.php?st=OH&last=wurzelbacher) between 2000 to 2003, speculation abounded.

I suspect that the supposed Keating connection is pure coincidence, but that's sure some luck that it shows up in the ordinary Joe that McCain picks to use as a major theme for his debate :)

UPDATE:

And Joe the non-plumber has got himself in big trouble (http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/10/im_not_a_plumbe.html).

[Judy G. Russell]

given that there is/was a "Robert M. Wurzelbacher" in Milford, Ohio who donated over $20,000 to Republicans (http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/bystate_detail.php?st=OH&last=wurzelbacher) between 2000 to 2003, speculation abounded.Oh my... if this guy does turn out to have been a plant, I will stop feeling sorry for him.

[sidney]

f this guy does turn out to have been a plant, I will stop feeling sorry for him.

He comes across as dumb as a potted plant, but I don't see how he could have been planted at a park not far from his home neighborhood when Obama just happened to cruise by for the meet and greet... Umm, actually I guess the press does have to know in advance about these photo ops and someone in the GOP could have had the idea of planting someone to ask a "hard" question. But I choose to remove the tinfoil hat and not go there, at least until it turns out that Joe the Plumber really is Keating's son-in-law's nephew or whatever.

And to digress from the original topic even more while still staying on related subjects, I would like to hear your opinion about the Ohio Secretary of State's appeal to the US Supreme Court. I found this blog entry with links to all the briefs (http://www.scotusblog.com/wp/ohio-seeks-to-block-voter-challenge-ruling/).

I read a comment from someone who thought that the argument in the reply brief that "ORP has shown no likelihood of success on the merits, because ORP has no private right of action to enforce the administrative provisions of the Help America Vote Act (“HAVA”) under 42 U.S.C. § 1983" should be a slam dunk, especially considering how unusual it is for a TRO to be issued to force someone to do something rather than prevent someone from doing something. Do you agree? What do you think Justice Stevens is likely to do with this?

[Judy G. Russell]

I choose to remove the tinfoil hat and not go there, at least until it turns out that Joe the Plumber really is Keating's son-in-law's nephew or whatever.D'accord.

And to digress from the original topic even more while still staying on related subjects, I would like to hear your opinion about the Ohio Secretary of State's appeal to the US Supreme Court. I found this blog entry with links to all the briefs (http://www.scotusblog.com/wp/ohio-seeks-to-block-voter-challenge-ruling/). I read a comment from someone who thought that the argument in the reply brief that "ORP has shown no likelihood of success on the merits, because ORP has no private right of action to enforce the administrative provisions of the Help America Vote Act (“HAVA”) under 42 U.S.C. § 1983" should be a slam dunk, especially considering how unusual it is for a TRO to be issued to force someone to do something rather than prevent someone from doing something. Do you agree? What do you think Justice Stevens is likely to do with this?

I tend to agree with the blogger about that. There are a couple of legal principles at work here. One is that implied private rights of action are disfavored, and without a private right of action the plaintiffs here have no standing (standing being a constitutional requirement, part of the notion of a "case or controversy" under Article III of the Constitution). Second is the notion that private rights of action are usually implied only to specifically benefit an individual. That usually means having a concrete injury to redress, which is why the Secretary says there's a reason for a private right of action under Section 302 of the act (requiring provisional ballots, since without one a challenged person cannot vote at all) while not having one under Section 303 (dealing with the database, since "dilution of my vote" isn't the same sort of personal injury). Third, and perhaps most important in this context, is the legal notion of "expressio unius est exclusio alterius" (loosely translated as, if something is expressly stated, then everything else is excluded). The statute expressly creates a right to go to court "for such declaratory and injunctive relief (including a temporary restraining order, a permanent or temporary injunction, or other order) as may be necessary to carry out the uniform and nondiscriminatory election technology and administration requirements" of the Act. And it gives that right to the Attorney General of the United States.

Taking all those together, and adding in the fact that the ORP waited until so late in the game to act, it seems to me that the Secretary's position is legally better here.

However, the Court's fingers were so singed by its involvement in the 2000 election that I'm not at all sure the Court wants to get involved here. It's hard to factor that element in. Stevens is no shrinking violet and is certainly capable of taking the case and deciding it quickly but he may prefer the "cover" of the other Justices, and I'm not at all sure this Court is ready to jump back into that fray.

An interesting tidbit about the Sixth Circuit decision is the breakdown in the judges as to who appointed them. Siding with the Republicans in this case were:
SUTTON - Bush
BOGGS - Reagan
BATCHELDER - Bush I
GILMAN - Clinton
GIBBONS - Bush
COOK - Bush
McKEAGUE - Bush
GRIFFIN - Bush
KETHLEDGE - Bush

Siding with the Secretary of State were:
MOORE - Clinton
MARTIN - Carter
DAUGHTREY - Clinton
COLE - Clinton
CLAY - Clinton
WHITE - Bush

[ktinkel]

(a) Paranoia is unbecoming. Understandable perhaps after 2000 and 2004, but definitely unbecoming. (b) I feel so sorry for this poor guy. Unless McCain had permission to inject him into the center of this firestorm, it was just flat out plain wrong to do so.McCain apologized on the Letterman show. Not sure a single parent who gets up early would be watching, but hey — he did apologize on TV!

[ktinkel]

Oh my... if this guy does turn out to have been a plant, I will stop feeling sorry for him.Evidently Wurzelbacher is a common name in that part of Ohio, and the two — Joe and Robert are not related.

Robert, however, is the son-in-law of Keating of the famed Keating Five, with which McCain has a history, one he wishes no one would talk about! I heard somewhere that Joe is related to Robert somehow, but Olberman (I think it was he) said last night that NBC checked and found no relationship at all.

Talk about happy coincidences.

[Judy G. Russell]

I would like to hear your opinion about the Ohio Secretary of State's appeal to the US Supreme Court.Follow-up: Turns out I was right -- (a) Stevens did get the cover of the entire Court and (b) they agreed that the plaintiffs don't have standing.

[Judy G. Russell]

Evidently Wurzelbacher is a common name in that part of Ohio, and the two — Joe and Robert are not related. ... Talk about happy coincidences.I somehow doubt that McCain is all that happy about the coincidence!

[Judy G. Russell]

McCain apologized on the Letterman show. Not sure a single parent who gets up early would be watching, but hey — he did apologize on TV!He should be groveling to this poor guy. I mean, the guy is a dolt, but he is entitled to be a dolt in private and not be used by anybody's political campaign.

[ktinkel]

He should be groveling to this poor guy. I mean, the guy is a dolt, but he is entitled to be a dolt in private and not be used by anybody's political campaign.Well, exactly! But not in a throwaway line on Letterman, either.

Speaking of insults and apologies, last night Olbermann, commenting on a story about Obama demonstrators at a Palin rally who had been attacked, they said, by a “65-year-old woman” and “a bunch of her friends” who called them traitors and other nasty names. One of the demonstrators came out of the fracas with a shiner, which he blamed on “the old ladies.”

Well. Olbermann talked on a bit, and several times repeated that phrase ("old ladies”). I found myself getting annoyed; almost got up to protest by e-mail or phone, but was too lazy.

Anyway, the show moved on, then took a break, and when it came back on the air, Olberman muttered “I’m sorry I called them old ladies” three times, his voice growing a bit softer each time. Strangest thing I have seen, and lately everything in the world has been seeming strange.

Wonder if he got some e-mails or phone calls about that.

Meanwhile, this was all a day after McCain said his campaign “repudiated” all misbehavior at rallies. I guess not all, though “traitor” is kind of a shocking word in a public setting. Or used to be.

And I did wonder how the protesters, males who looked to be about college-aged, knew the woman was 65 years old? Did she announce it? Was she wearing one of those tee-shirts that proclaim it? Guess I will never know that.

[Judy G. Russell]

Anyway, the show moved on, then took a break, and when it came back on the air, Olberman muttered “I’m sorry I called them old ladies” three times, his voice growing a bit softer each time. Strangest thing I have seen, and lately everything in the world has been seeming strange.Strange doesn't begin to describe the world these days... But I'm glad he apologized. The older I get, the younger those ages sound.

[sidney]

Follow-up: Turns out I was right -- (a) Stevens did get the cover of the entire Court and (b) they agreed that the plaintiffs don't have standing.

That was quick, and it does leave things in much less of a tangle.

[Judy G. Russell]

That was quick, and it does leave things in much less of a tangle.It really is the kind of question that requires an immediate response. Glad they acted.

[ktinkel]

The older I get, the younger those ages sound.Indeed! Speaking as a 67-year-old!

[Judy G. Russell]

Indeed! Speaking as a 67-year-old!And I'm a mere decade behind you!

[Dan in Saint Louis]

Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it:

A ROVE REMINISCENCE: When this colyumnist read that Republican political strategist Karl Rove will speak at Wash U. on Nov. 3, she couldn't help but recall an early indiscretion of Rove's that involved the aforementioned Alan Dixon. In the fall of 1970, Rove used a false identity to enter Dixon's campaign office; Dixon was running for Illinois treasurer at the time. Rove has acknowledged that he swiped some letterhead stationery and sent out 1,000 bogus invitations to the opening of the candidate's headquarters promising "free beer, free food, girls and a good time for nothing." He distributed the fliers at rock concerts and homeless shelters, hoping to disrupt the Dixon rally. Dixon won the office anyway. Rove's role in the prank was discovered in 1973; in 1999 he told the Dallas Morning News: "It was a youthful prank at the age of 19 and I regret it."

Original here (http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/columnists.nsf/debpeterson/story/2B54D2AC75C974A7862574E600114DB5?OpenDocument).

[ktinkel]

And I'm a mere decade behind you!Not so mere. Take care of yourself — I began my slide in 1998! <g>

[Judy G. Russell]

[B]in 1999 [Rove] told the Dallas Morning News: "It was a youthful prank at the age of 19 and I regret it."I'll bet he regrets it. It didn't work. If it had worked, he'd probably be proud of it!

[Judy G. Russell]

Not so mere. Take care of yourself — I began my slide in 1998! <g>I'm plugging away and hoping I have my grandmother's good genes. She was vigorous and in excellent physical and mental condition until just before her death in 1995... at the age of nearly 97.

[ktinkel]

I'm plugging away and hoping I have my grandmother's good genes. She was vigorous and in excellent physical and mental condition until just before her death in 1995... at the age of nearly 97.All four of my grandparents lived into their late eighties or beyond.

But my mother and father died at 50 and 62, respectively. So I too am banking on my grandparents!

[Judy G. Russell]

All four of my grandparents lived into their late eighties or beyond. But my mother and father died at 50 and 62, respectively. So I too am banking on my grandparents!My father and mother both died in their early 70s, but of conditions that shouldn't affect me (more behavioral than genetic!). So I keep hoping I got my grandmother's genes!

[ktinkel]

My father and mother both died in their early 70s, but of conditions that shouldn't affect me (more behavioral than genetic!). So I keep hoping I got my grandmother's genes!Yeah, both my parents were heavy smokers. And my father had rheumatic fever as a child (kept him out of the military). I think we are in the same shoes. Let’s hope they are good sturdy shoes!

[Judy G. Russell]

Yeah, both my parents were heavy smokers. And my father had rheumatic fever as a child (kept him out of the military). I think we are in the same shoes. Let’s hope they are good sturdy shoes!Fingers and toes crossed!!!

[ktinkel]

Fingers and toes crossed!!!In that case, the shoes should have plenty of room in front! Maybe get those high-box fronts they reserve for LOLs. <g>

[ndebord]

This video from Bradblog shows vote flipping taking place on these unauditable voting machines:

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6576

[Lindsey]

Oh my... if this guy does turn out to have been a plant, I will stop feeling sorry for him.
You may not need to feel sorry for him anyway. I understand he now has an agent, and is negotiating a book deal AND a record contract. (He wants to be a C&W singer. :rolleyes:)

[Judy G. Russell]

You may not need to feel sorry for him anyway. I understand he now has an agent, and is negotiating a book deal AND a record contract. (He wants to be a C&W singer. :rolleyes:)Most funny... McCain in Defiance, Ohio, calling out for Joe... who wasn't there!

[Lindsey]

Most funny... McCain in Defiance, Ohio, calling out for Joe... who wasn't there!
I especially like that it was in Defiance, Ohio. McCain's obviously got another maverick on his hands.

[Bill Hirst]

I especially like that it was in Defiance, Ohio. McCain's obviously got another maverick on his hands.Some of the people around McCain seem to have gone right past "maverick" and all the way to "loose cannon."

-Bill

[Judy G. Russell]

I especially like that it was in Defiance, Ohio. McCain's obviously got another maverick on his hands.He does seem to surround himself with people (Palin, Joe the tax-dodging unlicensed plumber) who are more focused on themselves than on him...

[Judy G. Russell]

Some of the people around McCain seem to have gone right past "maverick" and all the way to "loose cannon." Seems to me ol' John himself is enough of a loose cannon!

[Lindsey]

Some of the people around McCain seem to have gone right past "maverick" and all the way to "loose cannon."
Ain't that the truth!

[Lindsey]

He does seem to surround himself with people (Palin, Joe the tax-dodging unlicensed plumber) who are more focused on themselves than on him...
Not surprising -- isn't "every man for himself" basically the post-Reagan Republican philosophy?

[Judy G. Russell]

Not surprising -- isn't "every man for himself" basically the post-Reagan Republican philosophy?It sure seems to be!