sidney
September 20th, 2008, 03:16 PM
My new web site addiction (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com) bills itself as "Electoral Projections Done Right". I know that reading the changing projections every day will not influence the outcome of the election, but I'm hooked.
The FAQ (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html) goes into detail about their methodology.
Last week, up to the 17th, his projections showed Obama having lost his earlier lead in electoral votes and McCain winning, a lead that happened after the conventions. Yesterday that switched and the site has a fascinating article (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-919.html) about the factors involved. Basically, he says that it is not so much the problems with the economy favoring Obama, but rather that whatever took center stage after the conventions would serve to end the "convention bounce". That makes the current results more robust than a simple reaction to a single event.
The FAQ (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html) goes into detail about their methodology.
Last week, up to the 17th, his projections showed Obama having lost his earlier lead in electoral votes and McCain winning, a lead that happened after the conventions. Yesterday that switched and the site has a fascinating article (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-919.html) about the factors involved. Basically, he says that it is not so much the problems with the economy favoring Obama, but rather that whatever took center stage after the conventions would serve to end the "convention bounce". That makes the current results more robust than a simple reaction to a single event.