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sidney
September 20th, 2008, 03:16 PM
My new web site addiction (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com) bills itself as "Electoral Projections Done Right". I know that reading the changing projections every day will not influence the outcome of the election, but I'm hooked.

The FAQ (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html) goes into detail about their methodology.

Last week, up to the 17th, his projections showed Obama having lost his earlier lead in electoral votes and McCain winning, a lead that happened after the conventions. Yesterday that switched and the site has a fascinating article (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-919.html) about the factors involved. Basically, he says that it is not so much the problems with the economy favoring Obama, but rather that whatever took center stage after the conventions would serve to end the "convention bounce". That makes the current results more robust than a simple reaction to a single event.

ktinkel
September 20th, 2008, 03:31 PM
Some pollster said right after the conventions that no polling data would have much reliability before at least two weeks after the conventions finished. It takes that long for people to resume some normalcy.

Makes sense to me.

That is an absorbing web site.

Judy G. Russell
September 20th, 2008, 04:29 PM
.the site has a fascinating article (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-919.html) about the factors involved..Most interesting and, I hope, accurate!

davidh
September 20th, 2008, 04:56 PM
Didn't read the election poll article yet. But FWIW:

Science unveils hidden drivers of stock bubbles and crashes

by Marlowe Hood and Richard Ingham Thu Sep 18, 9:54 PM ET

PARIS (AFP)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080919/ts_afp/financesciencepsychology

Political Views Driven by Biology

Jeanna Bryner
Senior Writer
LiveScience.com Thu Sep 18, 2:06 PM ET

Fierce individualists, Americans figure that we choose our own political beliefs, but actually it could come down to biology.
ADVERTISEMENT

Individuals who are more easily startled by threats are more likely than others to support protective policies, such as military spending, the Iraq War and the death penalty, finds a new study.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20080918/sc_livescience/politicalviewsdrivenbybiology;_ylt=AqgAVqn9cQwcM15 xTnVuz1UPLBIF

DH