How freedom is won

[davidh]

http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/specreports/civictrans/

David H.

[Judy G. Russell]

The conclusions:

First, “people power” movements matter, because nonviolent civic forces are a major source of pressure for decisive change in most transitions.

Second, there is comparatively little positive effect for freedom in “top-down” transitions that were launched and led by elites.

Third, the presence of strong and cohesive nonviolent civic coalitions is the most important of the factors examined in contributing to freedom.

Fourth, the data suggests that the prospects for freedom are significantly enhanced when the opposition does not itself use violence. This does not leave me feeling warm and fuzzy about the prospects in Iraq...

[davidh]

This does not leave me feeling warm and fuzzy about the prospects in Iraq... Actually I did not have Iraq in mind. I was thinking more of the current situations in Vietnam, China, and Tibet.

Just to give an example. The Hoa Hao Buddhists in Vietnam have been resisting the Communists non-violently for many years. I think the Communists are more afraid of the Hoa Hao than other Buddhists because they practice monasticism in the home more than in monasteries, so it's harder for the Communist party to spy on the hierarchy. Other Vietnamese Buddhists do this too, of course. In Vietnamese it's called "di tu tai gia" meaning "go 'tu' at family". For example, widows, widowers, people who have completed their families. 'Tu' might be translated as renounce or renunciate.

I think they are more afraid of the Evangelical Montagnards too because they are less centralized than the Catholic Church. However some Montagnard villages have had to flee to Cambodia.

David H.

[Judy G. Russell]

Frankly, the prospects for eventual democracy in Vietnam or Cambodia may be higher than in Iraq...

[davidh]

Frankly, the prospects for eventual democracy in Vietnam or Cambodia may be higher than in Iraq...
In Vietnam it works sort of like under Saddam. You speak your mind too much and you just disappear. Or if you're lucky you just go to prison for 10 years.

Currently, there are not hundreds of madrassas [sp?] producing martyrs to go to Vietnam and blow themselves up to kill Buddhists, Evangelicals, etc.

D.H.

[Judy G. Russell]

Which one -- silence or madrassas -- turns out to be worse is something we'll just have to wait and see...